tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66428074085647582342024-03-13T06:47:21.827-06:00The Finance DudeDedicated to understanding how finance, science, and history influence the behaviors of people while trying to survive the day to day bullshit.The Finance Dudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16857147451465277783noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post-56624417789147559682007-04-04T08:44:00.000-06:002007-04-04T08:46:18.366-06:00I am Bart Simpson!<table width=350 align=center border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=2><tr><td bgcolor="#DDDDDD" align=center><font face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif" style='color:black; font-size: 14pt;'><b>You Are Bart Simpson</b></font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#EEEEEE"><center><img src="http://images.blogthings.com/thesimpsonspersonalitytest/bart-simpson.jpg" height="100" width="100"></center><font color="#000000"><br />Very misunderstood, most people just dismiss you as "trouble."<br /> <br />Little do they know that you're wise and well accomplished beyond your years.<br /><br />You will be remembered for: starring in your own TV show and saving the town from a comet<br /><br />Your life philosophy: "I don't know why I did it, I don't know why I enjoyed it, and I don't know why I'll do it again!"</font></td></tr></table><div align="center"><a href="http://blogthings.com/thesimpsonspersonalitytest/">The Simpsons Personality Test</a></div>The Finance Dudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16857147451465277783noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post-67439854197406040412007-03-08T13:14:00.000-06:002007-03-09T08:44:13.809-06:00Gettin F#ckin Blown Up Man!<span style="color:#000000;"><a href="http://www.4th25.com/">http://www.4th25.com/</a></span><br /><br /><span style="color:#000000;">The lyrics from Iraq speak volumes about the reality of what war is. I am posting the lyrics from 4th25 based in Iraq and their main title track, "Live from Iraq."<br /><br />In case you don't know what I am talking about I'll quote from their site...<br /><br /></span><span style="color:#000000;"></span><p><blockquote><span style="color:#000000;">Before LIVE FROM IRAQ, there was only the dream of making music. All we had was a COMPAQ computer with a SOUND BLASTER AUDIGY card, a $100 mic, and a burnt copy of ACID PRO. Every Friday, a bunch of us would pile into my barracks room, drink, write, and record whatever it was that came to mind. It was one of these Friday nights that SGT. ALVIN GREEN, in response to probably the hottest cut we ever dropped back then said, "this is the 4th quarter right here... the game's about to be over... This joint is they 2 minute warning". Little did we know what those words "4th Quarter" would inspire.<br /><br />It was our deployment that truely defined the term 4th Quarter. No more was it just the words Alvin Green spoke one Friday night... It was the mentality we embraced. The 4th Quarter in the game of our lives. This is where we had to play thru our injuries both mental and physical, because losing was not an option. There were no timeouts or instant replays... no penalties or flags on the play... and no home field advantage. This was whether or not we ever stepped foot on the field to play again, and the most humbling moment of our lives. There, there is no such thing as overtime, or a tie. You either win or you lose. And, we were down 1, faced with a decision to which there was only one answer. Go for two. Because, anything less was to have given up without ever having tried to win. And winning there was the difference between life and death.That same mentality inspires our music. 4th25 music. Consider this your 2 minute warning!!!- 4th25 </span></blockquote><br /><br /><span style="color:#000000;">I have been jammin these guys for almost a year, since they got the CD out! It's powerful and it's amazing what these guys did to relieve the pain - it seethes with the pain of war. I've never heard anything like it and below you'll find the underserved lyrics from which the passion emanates. Find a copy and play the hell out of it. It makes your heart hurt when you realize these guys' lives are being wasted....<br /><br /><br /></span><span style="color:#000000;"></span><div align="center"><span style="font-family:arial;font-size:130%;color:#000000;">LIVE FROM IRAQ ~ 4TH25</span></div><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:130%;"><div align="center"><br /><span style="color:#000000;"><br />Every days like a gamble here<br />This is no joke<br />This is live from Iraq<br />Where were prayin’ we make it home </span><span style="color:#000000;"><br />True gutter for you fuckers<br />Think its gutter where you from<br />Here its life by the second<br />This is everything wrong<br />This is not your beef on the block<br />No its not that simple<br />Here its more than gunfire<br />They shootin rockets and missiles<br />This is up armor kits<br />And bulletproof windows<br />We sleep with body armor blankets<br />And Kevlar pillows<br />In a country<br />Where when anybody’s talking they lyin<br />And wherever there is a soldier<br />There is shrapnel flyin<br />59 of us April 4th<br />8 of us dyin<br />This is your thug turnt punk<br />This is grown men crying<br />This is bombs in the street<br />Blowin up when I drive buy em’<br />Or its rpg?s launched at me<br />This is nothing problems<br />The true definition of goin hard<br />No games<br />This is hundreds of bodies<br />In the streets when we bang<br />Cause this is live from Iraq<br />Home of too many soldiers graves<br />Where for our country<br />We gamble with our lives everyday<br />And there are no blue skies here<br />Every color's gray<br />This is the blood of soldiers of which the streets are now paved<br />And there is no reimbursement for the price that we pay<br />While yall home sleep were here constantly getting weighed<br />And every convoy that rides out<br />Constantly getting sprayed<br />But we don't fold hands<br />The cards we are dealt get played<br />This is...<br />Nights wit no supper man<br />Home ain’t promised man<br />Long journeys qualified<br />Hell from a promise land<br />Dreams feel real but not as real<br />As tomorrow man<br />Wish life was like contra<br />Than life then I could borrow man<br />No instant replays<br />No highlights any days<br />When balls get dropped<br />You cant challenge the play<br />This is the wrath of equipment<br />No refs to stop the clippin<br />This no timeouts cause father time<br />Is still ticken, this is yeah<br />Future in the air<br />Pain sculpted in stone<br />Families sheddin tears<br />Cause they sons aint comin home<br />This is more than a gamble<br />And I'll give you the truth<br />Plenty of lives lost<br />Over a scandal<br />Turning more than a cheek<br />Warm hearts turn cold<br />Higher people in command<br />Planning wit no type of goals<br />This is your own exposed<br />Media cast and the scoop<br />Covered over the answers<br />Cause you cant handle the truth<br />Cause this is live from Iraq<br />Home of too many soldiers graves<br />Where for our country<br />We gamble with our lives everyday<br />And there are no blue skies here<br />Every color's gray<br />This is the blood of soldiers of which the streets are now paved<br />And there is no reimbursement for the price that we pay<br />While yall home sleep were here constantly getting weighed<br />And every convoy that rides out Constantly getting sprayed<br />But we don't fold hands<br />The cards we are dealt get played<br />For some this is the answer<br />To a whole lot of issues<br />Sure its politics back home<br />Here its bullets thru our tissue<br />This is trying to draw contact<br />Hopin' they miss you<br />This is one mortar round from<br />Bein over; no continues<br />This is nothing yall been thru<br />Yall aint seen shit<br />And this is not whats on the news<br />What really happens aint printed<br />This is your one mistake<br />Bein everbody elses business<br />Whether they see their family<br />Or its funeral home visits<br />This is 150 degrees<br />3 months out of the fiscal<br />250 G's when that I.E.D hits you<br />This is 60 miles an hour through ambush zones<br />This is dead animals with explosive devices on em'<br />This is the home of direct fire<br />Where everybody's a target<br />When you find out some people ain’t hard<br />They just talk shit<br />Definitely nothing pretty<br />This is no picnic<br />This is trying to hold fire<br />Without burnin your fingers<br />Cause this is live from Iraq<br />Home of too many soldiers graves<br />Where for our country<br />We gamble with our lives everyday<br />And there are no blue skies here<br />Every colors gray<br />This is the blood of soldiers of which the streets are now paved<br />And there is no reimbursement for the price that we pay<br />While yall home sleep were here constantly getting weighed<br />And every convoy that rides out<br />Constantly getting sprayed<br />But we don't fold hands<br />The cards we are dealt get played</span></div><div align="center"></div></span><div align="center"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:130%;"></span></div>The Finance Dudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16857147451465277783noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post-46495517689566928932007-03-05T10:45:00.000-06:002007-03-05T11:57:50.258-06:00Riding the Curve DownOver the last few days many conditions within the economic system has begun to show the signs of stress. The economic engine that has served as the mirage and carrot for the underclasses is cracking and parts of this engine will seize up. More specifically, the sub prime home lenders are imploding and can can be accessed <a href="http://ml-implode.com/">http://ml-implode.com/</a>. The housing market so many in the MSM have defended, is crumbling under the weight of highly risky bets made on the ability of poor paying consumers to keep paying. In spite of all these market gyrations, the more important problem has reared it's head, and this time with some hard numbers.<br /><br />For those of you who don't understand or have never heard of peak oil, it's a simple concept to grasp, but before I enlighten you, you've got to own up to some behavioral issues we all face as humans. Our minds are not prepared to deal with catastrophic news, instead our brain finds short cuts that can provide an emotional comfort to sooth the pain that real facts present. In other words, people don't want to hear that bad shit, we just want to hear the good stuff. Like I've said before, we keep drinking the kool aid, the flavors change and no one seems to notice. I've warned you.....<br /><br />Peak oil is the end of the modern suburban lifestyle as we know it. Now as bad as that shit sounds, there's comfort all over the place - in pockets anyway. I'm going to skip over the details in an effort to make my larger point about the NEW information as of March 2, 2007. For a complete run down of what peak oil entails check out <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php">http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php</a>. What follows is simply some bullet points to help those who don't understand peak oil to catch up.<br /><br />Let's agree on a few points and you'll soon understand the problem we, as humans, are choosing to ignore. Oil is finite, there is only so much that was endowed to this planet, the point here is there will be an end to the production of oil at <em>sometime.</em> Next, extracting oil follows a bell curve similar to a Gaussian Distribution, but a bit different. In the beginning, the easiest oil, the stuff bubbling at the surface - is tapped first. Then we move on to harder to reach spots and then on to flat out dangerous regions of the planet. M King Hubbert, in 1956, predicted a peak in US production. When? 1970....14 years in the future. Was he wrong? Yes, but by one year and that's debatable.<br /><br /><img style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://www.energybulletin.net/image/primer/hubbert_aspo_ital.png" border="0" /><br />Imagine the surprise of all those in Texas that despite massive increases to the well counts, peak oil production had passed and nothing could stop the decline in production of oil. Instead, the next place to find oil, was going farther into the ocean, namely the Gulf Of Mexico. People, the fact that the easy oil is gone, serves as validation in the eventually complete decline in oil production worldwide. The fact that we needed to go into the GOM to find and extract more oil, serves as the very basis for the need to PLAN for peak oil on a world wide scale. We have been strictly discussing historic facts during the peak in US production.<br /><br />To further prove the point, we have to locate the oil to pump first and foremost. Oh shit, discovery of oil peaked in the late 60's.<br /><br /><img style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://www.energybulletin.net/image/primer/discovery_gap.gif" border="0" />We are consuming more oil per day than we find. Can you imagine eating more corn today than we've harvested and continuing to do so for YEARS? Eventually we would go to get more corn and it's all gone. That's basically what's going to happen to our oil reserves. Now I know, right now you're reasoning your way out of this. Stop letting your brain trick you into not appreciating the raw numbers, facts if you will.<br /><br /><br />Lastly, at some point it will literally take more energy(called EROEI) to recovers the oil than it's worth when it reaches the top. Keep in mind, in this highly oil dependent, circular world - the same oil rigs pulling oil from the ground, need oil to function. At some point the value of that oil in terms of it's energy content, will be less than what it takes to get at it.<br /><br /><br />There will be catastrophic changes throughout the entire system as everyone adjusts to the new paradigm shift - oil scarcity. Our coming ages will be dominated by resource wars to secure the last remaining pools of resources. We've seen China trekking all across the Globe to secure their resources and they don't tend to mettle in the countries as the US does (how many military bases do we have again).<br /><br /><br />I know that's a lot to digest and so I'll make the real point, quick. In spite of your yearning for me to be wrong and to validate what your mind wants to tell you is false - the oil production peak is in. We're about to begin a long slide down Hubbert Curve and it's going to get nasty. Stuart Staniford over at <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/">http://www.theoildrum.com/</a> has laid his reputation on the line in the name of calling the peak in oil production. His analysis was presented on TOD on March 2 and received an overwhelming response within TOD. His full analysis can be accessed at <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2325">http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2325</a>.<br /><br />The Oil Drum is reporting that the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has peaked in it's oil production. Currently the world is burning through roughly 85 million barrels per day(mbpd). When you see the MSM talking about the HUGE Jack find in the GOM a few months back, it's not that large when you realize how fast the world burns oil. The US has not even 1/5 the population on the planet, yet we use roughly 1/3 of that oil total or 26 mbpd. KSA hs the largest remaining oil field, Ghawar, and it's crashing hard. Understanding KSA is simple - they (Sunni's) are in the minority and the majority is Shia. The Sunnis sit on the oil wealth in the name of the US. We have bases in KSA and those serve the interest of the ruling elite. Can you imagine such a small group of people in charge of the cash? Oh wait, yeh I can too.<br /><br />In other words, KSA can't tell us how much oil is left because to do so would cause violent social changes by the minority party who would now know without a doubt, that an end to oil hegdemoney by KSA is soon. However what little data we do get comes from IEA and it's unrealiable at best, but gives a good direction. That direction for KSA for the last 16 months has been negative. Normally we could push this off as a condition of an over supplied market and KSA is choosing to reduce output. This time, as they say, is different. There is ONE tell that provides the basis for cementing the truth that peak oil is here.<br /><br />Rig counts - Oil rigs counts. Remember, the US, doubled, tripled, by the 90's, quadrupled total oil wells in the ground and what happened to production? It fell and it continues to fall to this day. KSA has been leasing every oil rig on the planet for the past 18-24 months. Yet in spite of increasing their oil wells, they are showing LESS production. If that not enough, one more point that I find compelling and that's following the money. Katrina/Rita hit in Aug 05 and in the ensuing months KSA briefly increased production followed by declines every single month. Why in the world would the largest producer in the world voluntarily choose to make less money? Why would KSA reduce consumption with higher prices to the tune of $70-80/barrel? Simple supply and demand demonstrates that at higher prices, producers produce more. Remember, Exxon and their out sized profits? Why didn't KSA enjoy that since they can produce as much as they choose?<br /><br />If you've reached this, than you've probably got a knot in your stomach. It's ok, it'll go away in a few days/weeks or however long it takes for you to digest the truth that seems to be missing from the MSM bullshit. Going forward, you have to reduce your dependence on a car. I know it's not easy in this country, but simple things like moving closer to light rail will help benefit your bottom line in the long term. Where do you think the prime real estate spots will remain following oil declines - closer to the light rail that's for sure.The Finance Dudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16857147451465277783noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post-12576095415412795002007-02-23T13:37:00.001-06:002007-03-05T08:06:28.663-06:00What the F*CK Went Wrong?This will be my first post here at The Finance Dude and I couldn’t be more excited. No really, have you ever been so pissed off that you stop to tell yourself I'm going to do something about that? Usually, we just continue on with our lives and think about it again on the weekend when we're not "busy." I feel like I'm screaming inside myself every time I pick up a newspaper or turn on the television version of "news." I'm neither left nor right. I for one think we should overhaul the entire "democratic" system since we no longer get representation. I remember being taught (wait till we get to that) in school that we started the Revolutionary war against Great Britain’s taxation (who ironically call it the War of Insurrection) without representation. Too bad the American people don’t fight the same way today.<br /><br />What happened to being represented in Congress? Oh that’s right most of you simply tuned out of the process or in my case, I’m late to the party. So now I’m forced to accept what cards I’ve been dealt and I for one want a new set, you know?! Since that’s not going to happen any time soon, I’ll settle for bitching in cyber space which ultimately is no more than talking to a brick wall, but I’m happier.<br /><br />Most of us just deal with the day to day bullshit and attempt to survive. Few of us stop to think about large trends across an entire social structure or financial changes that threaten our future. For some strange reason (GOD?), I’ve got this natural motivation to understand finance and economics. I’m not gifted enough to understand it all, yet; but I’m motivated enough to read like a rabbit’s sex drive. I can’t help myself sometimes; it’s almost like I’m OCD at times. There is a problem though. I’ve discovered a rabbit hole of knowledge and it only leads to more understanding, which then leads to more disdain for our current paradigms.<br /><br />To understand where I’m coming from, you’ve got to look at the method to the madness. I tend to examine something at one end or the other, micro or macro, and then drill it all the way to the other side. Basically everyone’s little contributions DO add up and they DO create change. Change can’t be stopped. If you disagree with that statement then perhaps you might enjoy leaving right now because it’s going to get worse before it gets better. This change can be good or bad, but the point is that is does do something. Time is completely independent in this unique problem. The choices that are made now wind up creating consequences generations from now. The cancerous problems that are addressed today only serve as appetizers to the ongoing buffet with no end in sight.<br /><br />Science serves as the basis of information - period. It changes, adapts and finds new answers to old and new problems. Your ass that’s planted in that seat is because of Science first and foremost. At one point people believed Earth was the center of the universe and that belief remained until Science could prove that it was the Sun at the heart of the solar system. Science discovered electricity and we are limited by our ability to harness the energy and distribute it. Science has formed the bedrock, the corner stone of knowledge and it continues to marginally expand.<br /><br />Science is only one part of our world we’re stuck with and another part is the history that has preceded all of us. The cumulative knowledge on this planet is impressive to say the least. It’s wide ranging and without restraint. You can learn how to kill whole towns with nuclear weapons. Have you ever stopped to understand that sad fact? Kind of fucking sucks if you ask me, but what can you do but block that out 99% of the time. Understanding history can better prepare you to cope with the future changes that will happen. Now I'm not going to say you can predict the future, but my fellow Missourian Samuel Clemens, best known as Mark Twain, said it best:<br />“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”<br />Ultimately we are reliving the same bullshit over and over it’s just a different flavor of Kool Aid folks.<br /><br />Lastly there is the finance that underpins the entire systems today. When I talk about history, this is the kind of thing I am attempting to point out. We are only removed from mercantilism by roughly three hundred years and capitalism has dominated for the remaining time. Economic systems are not any more permanent than Rome was prior to the “greatest civilization ever” collapsing. We feel the permanence now due to the forces that bind it together, namely today’s corporate states of America. There are far too many people that want capitalism to work, than to let it fail. I might not be here, but neither will capitalism at some point. Why do I say that? For capitalism to work, we need growth. There’s one LITTLE problem though, thermodynamics, specifically the first and second laws.<br /><br />The first law roundly states that energy can not be created or destroyed only transferred. I’m simply stating this, but you can’t make or destroy energy; only use it and recycle in a closed system (Earth is a closed system, economically speaking). Second law states that entropy, or waste, increase over time to a maximum value. At some point there will be so much waste inside the capitalistic system that it seizes up. We are witnessing the greatest explosion of fiat paper money in the history of mankind! Fiat paper money is not tied to anything in reality folks, nothing real is behind the value of that piece of paper. Human beings are in charge of the ATM machine and it doesn’t have a limit at all! People are not rational, and for now I will leave it at that. How does science apply to Economics?<br /><br />Simple – we are living on a planet that is not expanding in resources. There was only so much iron ore, minerals, and oil endowed upon the planet. For capitalism to function there must always be growth but it’s quite obvious there will come a point at which growing won’t be an option. Again I highly doubt I see this end, but it’s not sustainable and that’s the point. We will all witness the end of oil however, and if you have never touched on peak oil research, you should. If you don’t want to read it, don’t bitch about it not being real. There is not a single person I know who has reviewed the data and come to a different conclusion than we will face the collapse of oil production in our lifetimes. I’ll do you one better and say I think we’ve already peaked around Dec 05, but that’s anther post too. Today’s finance is mostly akin to a Ponzi scheme whereby the next sucker that comes in the door pays the last one. So long as there are more people to feed into this, the merry go round continues. Money makes the world go round and if you don’t believe that then answer me this…Who financed Hitler before/during World War II?<br /><br />Until next time,<br />The Finance Dude<br />Falling down the rabbit hole…The Finance Dudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16857147451465277783noreply@blogger.com0