tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post4649551768956692893..comments2023-03-28T09:55:15.571-06:00Comments on The Finance Dude: Riding the Curve DownThe Finance Dudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16857147451465277783noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post-42634341120680033572007-04-05T01:13:00.000-06:002007-04-05T01:13:00.000-06:00Productivity matters because we aren't going to ru...Productivity matters because we aren't going to run out of oil tomorrow. It'll happen gradually, over many decades, and as the price goes up, we'll start substituting other alternatives, ones that ALREADY EXIST.<BR/><BR/>As for investigating further tar sands and oil shale, I respectfully submit that you really ought to do just that, if you believe that they're net energy sinks.<BR/><BR/>Regarding the $50 trillion, perhaps you don't realize that that figure is the estimated total debt for the next seventy-five years, during which period total American GNP will be between $1,500 - $2,500 trillion, in constant dollars.<BR/>Given that, I think that we can spare a mere $50 trillion.<BR/><BR/>You also have the roles of America and China reversed. If it weren't for the voracious appetites of the American consumer, China would be in a world of hurt right now. They give us cheap loans on E-Z terms, and steal from their own population to subsidize American consumers by linking the yuan to the dollar, all to keep good flowing into Cali, and employment high in China.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post-62600806134165221262007-04-04T16:19:00.000-06:002007-04-04T16:19:00.000-06:00Sir,The end of cheap oil is exactly what peak oil ...Sir,<BR/><BR/>The end of cheap oil is exactly what peak oil is all about. The peak in cheap oil. You bring up tar sands and oil shale. Perhaps you should investigate further. The energy it takes to create oil from shale is more than it would take to simply recycle highway blacktop. To date, how much oil from shale has been produced?<BR/><BR/>I'll create a post to answer you're points. True we can reduce consumption be reducing our fleet of SUV's, but it's not going to happen. You're never going to eliminate all of them. You are missing the point - at what price signal will SUV's owners all abandon ship? $5/gal? Meanwhile, less gets produced later because it was wasted already in an SUV b/c the gas ONLY cost $2.<BR/><BR/>Our 5% is using roughly 1/3 of total oil consumption, however it is most rapidly increasing in Asia. Why are you bringing up domestic activity and comparing oil? Why would productivity matter when we are running out of oil? It's still going to be wasted over there at INCREASING RATES. And we will not outbid everyone. America's financial situation is quite dour to say the least. $50 Trillion in debt, and we'll outspend everyone? It if weren't for CHINA we would have been fucked years ago.The Finance Dudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16857147451465277783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6642807408564758234.post-9786805195362135542007-04-04T10:14:00.000-06:002007-04-04T10:14:00.000-06:00CHEAP oil has definitely peaked, but if we conside...<I><B>CHEAP</I></B> oil has definitely peaked, but if we consider near-oil sources such as tar sands and oil shale, and that in the United States we could cut total oil consumption by 10% simply by switching from driving SUVs and pickups to sedans and station wagons, then we can see that "peak oil" isn't a civilization-ending catastrophe.<BR/><BR/>We'll just adjust and move on. It helps that, as the richest and most productive nation on Earth, the U.S. can afford to simply outbid anyone else for the remaining oil.<BR/><BR/>As far as U.S. oil usage goes, it's true that Americans are only 5% of the planet's population, and we use a huge chunk of global oil production, but America also <I>produces</I> 25% of global economic activity. The Chinese, for instance, are only a third as productive as is America, measured by economic output per input of oil.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com